Book: The Quest to Model the Feedback Loops Behind Oil Price Swings

With no prior expertise in oil market modeling, you will explore the feedback loops that drive oil price volatility through the Petroleum Business Dynamics framework. You will gain a clear understanding of why traditional models fall short in explaining four decades of recurring price swings—from the 1986 collapse and $100 barrel boom-bust to shale revolutions, pandemics, and geopolitical shocks—and how interconnected loops in supply, demand, stocks, and price formation create self-reinforcing or self-correcting behaviors. Through the book’s step-by-step development of simulation engines (covering depletion costs, reserves, spare capacity, GDP and oil intensity effects, expectations, and others), you will learn to read market cycles structurally rather than as unpredictable anomalies. The result is a practical, inspectable mental model that empowers more robust decision-making in investment, policy, risk management, and energy transition strategies, without promising point forecasts.

No prior experience with feedback modeling, or deep oil market knowledge is required. The book builds concepts progressively from foundational philosophy through concrete mechanisms and historical applications, making the material accessible to readers new to these ideas while offering depth for those already working in or around energy markets.